Wednesday, June 07, 2006

An England-Brazil final: seems I agree!

So I finally sat down with my special summer issue of World Soccer, the one with reviews and comments concerning the 32 WC teams and tried to figure out how the event will play out, first within each of the groups and then in the one-and-out playoffs. After a few fits and starts, I eventually came to the same final as the Ref (see below): an England-Brazil final. I've not gone back to his post to see who comes out of each of the groups; we may agree on some, disagree on others. I also will admit that having watched the EPL all year may have influenced my views of the English team, because I believe players such as Terry, Lampard, Gerrard, J Cole, and Robinson are among the best at their positions. Even without Rooney, England should win its group and then have a clear shot to the final, as explained below.

(Two caveats: 1) having discussed some of the various strengths and weaknesses of different teams with the Ref, I would be remiss not to note the greater depth of his soccer knowledge, so differences between his and my picks may be explained by my ignorance; 2) as Ms. AR said to me, she probably could do just as good a job picking teams based on, oh, uniform colors for example. Sadly, in my case, she's probably right.

Group A (in order of finish):

Poland
Germany

Group B:

England
Sweden

Group C:

Argentina
Ivory Coast (I think the Netherlands are hurting and that IC is just a bit better than S&M)

Group D:

Portugal
Mexico

Group E:

Czech Republic (Koller's back and he looked dangerous in the pre-Cup friendlies)
US (going with heart over head, clearly)

Group F:

Brazil
Croatia

Group G:

France
Switzerland

Group H:

Spain
Ukraine

In the first round knockouts, I have the following

Poland-Sweden = Sweden

Argentina-Mexico= Mexico (not crazy about Mexico, so if the Argentines advance, that's alright by me)

England-Germany=England (Germany gets out of group A because it gets a boost from the hometown fans; but it goes no further)

Portugal-Ivory Coast=Ivory Coast (I'm a big Drogba fan, and Portugal always underachieves)

Czech Republic-Croatia=Czech Republic

France-Ukraine=Ukraine (Henri's great, Zidaine is still good, but that's about it)

Brazil-US=Brazil (I'm not delusional)

Spain-Switzerland=Spain

Quarterfinals

Sweden-Mexico=Sweden

England-IC=England (Rooney returns, scores, picks up a yellow for language)

Czech Rep-Ukraine=CR

Brazil-Spain=Brazil (Spain gets this far because of a weak draw, but it's no match for Brazil)

Semis

Sweden-England=England (this means that England probably has to do twice what's it's failed to do once going back 10 games: beat Sweden. I think this team can.)

Brazil-CR=Brazil (but a CR win would not be a huge upset: it's ranked 2nd in FIFA (the US FIFA ranking at 5 is way off because the US plays in a weak conference, but the CR plays in Europe, which is not so weak))

Final

England-Brazil= . . . .

If the game comes down to defense and goalkeeping, I think England has the edge. If it's wide open, then the Brazilian forwards, along with Ronaldinho may be able to dictate play, but going against Lampard, Cole, and Gerrard in the midfield could present them with their hardest test.

England wins! (I'm a Red Sox fan from way back, so rooting for a long-suffering underdog/underachievers comes second nature to me.)

1 comment:

The AR said...

I originally wrote that I thought the Ref had Argentina not getting out of group, but my memory (this is not surprising) was faulty. So I've edited the post.